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Real Estate Outlook: Pending Sales Jump
If anyone needs hard evidence that the real estate market cycle is flattening out and turning around, check out the latest pending home sales index numbers.
On a national basis, the index jumped by 5.3 percent last month. But more importantly, it rose in every region of the country, suggesting that the turnaround underway is broad-based -- even if it's likely to proceed slowly and modestly in the months immediately ahead.
The index -- which measures signed sale contracts that haven't yet gone to closing -- is a leading indicator of home sales for the coming two to three months. You can bet on solid increases in sales in the South, where the index was up by 9.3 percent, and in the West, up by 4.6 percent. Pending sales in the Northeast states were up by 3.4 percent and in the Midwest by 1.3 percent.
And if first-time home buyers start taking advantage of Congress's new $7,500 tax credit, sales later in the summer and Fall could exceed most analysts' expectations.
The National Association of Realtors is projecting that over 2 million home sales could be stimulated by the credit between now and mid-2009, when it expires.
The timing couldn't be better: Prices have come down in many parts of the country, mortgage money continues to be relatively affordable, and growing numbers of consumers on the sidelines are recognizing that this is a smart time to buy a house.
The $7,500 credit -- which is available to anyone who hasn't owned a home during the past three years -- is icing on the cake.
In other economic developments affecting housing this week, core inflation rose by zero point three percent last month, which is still moderate, but the Federal Reserve is keeping an eagle eye on any signs of an inflation breakout triggered by higher commodities prices. That means no more cuts in short term interest rates for the time being.
Mortgage rates jumped slightly this past week -- averaging 6.57 percent for 30 year fixed-rate loans, up from 6.4 percent the prior week, and 15 year loans averaged 6.2 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.
Written by Kenneth R. Harney
August 19, 2008
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